Oil prices are good in the medium and long term! McKinsey forecasts peak demand in as soon as three years

In its new Global Energy Outlook 2022 report, McKinsey said a slowdown in road transport demand could lead to a peak in oil demand over the next two to five years.



McKinsey pointed out that the main driver of electric vehicles is stagnant oil demand growth. Oil demand will peak at around 102 million barrels per day in the next two to five years, despite a near-term recovery from the pandemic.
However, McKinsey noted in the report that the analysis was conducted before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

After peaking in the early 2020s, demand for road transport is expected to fall by 75% by 2050, as fewer cars and more electric vehicles will further reduce demand for crude oil, McKinsey said in the report.

The chemical industry will remain one of the few growth channels for oil demand. Chemical-driven demand will jump 50% by 2050, despite increasing downward pressure from reduced demand, recycling and pyrolysis, the report noted.

The McKinsey analysis, which did not factor in the impact of the Ukraine war and Russian invasion on the global economy, energy markets and supply chains, remains one of the industry's most pessimistic forecasts for oil demand growth.

In its 2021 Energy Outlook, released in the fall of 2021, Totalenergy said that global oil demand will level off by 2020 and decline sharply after 2030. Previously, TotalEnergies expected oil demand to peak around 2030 and then slowly decline.

Two-and-a-half years ago, one-fifth of oil investor clients surveyed by the market said oil demand would peak in February 2021. In the November 2021 survey, only 2% of oil investors believe oil demand will peak in 2025, and less than 40% believe it will peak before 2030.



(Daily chart of Brent crude oil main contract)

At 13:32 GMT+8 on April 27, the price of the main Brent crude oil contract was reported at $104.95 per barrel.