Bitcoin Stalls at $75K as Profit-Taking and Supply Walls Build

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have gone up almost 10% this month, but they are now hitting a clear wall of supply near $75,000, which can be explained by a number of on-chain signs coming together. 

The break is especially noticeable because U.S. stocks are close to record highs, which usually would support more crypto price growth. The data instead shows that holders are selling when demand is high, spot demand isn't level, and derivatives traders are being careful. All of these factors together suggest that the market is consolidating instead of breaking out.

The Profit-Taking Signal: $1.14 Billion in a Single Day

What's going on near $75,000 can be seen most clearly in the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which shows how much money is locked in as wins when coins move on-chain. The exponential moving average of this measure over the last 30 days is currently at 1.16, which is significantly higher than the 1.0 level that separates profit-taking from neutral activity.

CryptoQuant says that on Tuesday, when Bitcoin quickly went above $76,000 before falling back below $75,000, investors made about $1.14 billion, which is one of the biggest single-day readings of 2026. That much selling during a single session move is exactly why the rise couldn't keep going higher.

The 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is at 1.16, which means buyers are selling when prices are high. This means more people are taking profits. CryptoQuant said in its study that if the price stays above $78,100 for a long time, the market will have to take in this extra supply.

The $76,800 Cost-Basis Wall — The Same Level That Killed January's Rally

A fundamental supply concentration is starting to form at a certain price, on top of the current profit-taking. The realized price for short-term holders is around $76,800. This is also the average starting point for traders who bought during the most recent drawdown phase. When the market is weak, this level always acts as resistance because investors who were underwater use advances to get out at breakeven instead of holding for more gains.

At least in theory, this is a worry. BTC prices almost reached $1 in January, but the same band stopped them. They then fell back to $60,000. So, the resistance zone we're in now is very important.

Bitcoin exchange inflows reached 11,000 BTC per hour at $75,000–$76,000, the highest level since late December. This exacerbated supply issues. More intriguing is the make-up: the average deposit size rose to 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, and within days, huge transfers rose from 10% to 40% of all inflows. Larger holders, not small buyers, increase supply.

ETF Demand vs. Large Holder Distribution: A Market Handoff

Demand remains true, but not everywhere. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs keep getting fresh funds this month. For instance, market maker Enflux reported $240 million invested in one session after Middle East events. BTC rose from $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s after the institutional bid. Allocation behavior instead of momentum chasing is a more reliable demand source that can be met.

CryptoQuant's data demonstrates that this ETF's demand and distribution to significant holders are two sides of the same transaction. It appears long-term holders are putting coins directly into ETFs. Exchange inflows and ETF subscriptions indicate the same capital transfer in different datasets. How long new ETF-driven purchasers stay in the market compared to long-term investors who leave will determine supply absorption.

Glassnode said that Binance has been the site of most of the aggressive buying, while Coinbase and other exchanges have seen much smaller demand. The structural depth of the rally is limited by the fact that trust is spread out unevenly.

Derivatives: Caution, Not Conviction

What you see of derivatives backs up the idea of consolidation. There is still a small negative trend in funding rates, which shows that traders are not yet strongly long. It still seems like Deribit's Bitcoin options are more likely to be put options all the time. People still want to protect themselves against losses, which is why this is the case.

"People are feeling better, but they aren't fully convinced yet," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus. "Work on the chain has slowed down." This means the market is likely to be stabilizing, not overheating.

There is a clear tug-of-war going on near $75,000 between steady ETF and macro-driven demand on one side and big holder distribution and short-term holder breakeven selling on the other. If the price stays above $78,100 for a long time, it means that new demand has absorbed the extra supply. Historically, once this happens, price goes higher quickly. 

If that mark isn't broken, there is still a chance that prices will drop back to $71,000–$72,000, which is the bottom of the current rally leg. The bulls still have to prove their case until the CVD gets stronger on Coinbase and funding rates go up.