Google’s 9-Minute Quantum Threat: Is Bitcoin’s Security Compromised?

A Google story from yesterday (March 31st) said that quantum computers of the future might be able to break the elliptic curve cryptography that protects cryptocurrencies with fewer resources than thought. Using a computer simulation, a quantum computer with a fast clock speed was able to get the private key from the Bitcoin public key in about 9 minutes.

The Bitcoin（BTC） network usually makes a new block every 10 minutes. This gives attackers about one minute to steal instant transactions while they are still in the memory pool and haven't been confirmed yet. This puts the entire Bitcoin supply at risk.

This article caused a lot of panic and criticism in the cryptocurrency world very quickly. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) replied that the crypto industry only needs to switch to methods that aren't affected by quantum computing to deal with the threat, and investors shouldn't worry too much.

CZ said that upgrading autonomous networks still has a lot of problems to solve in the real world. Forks could happen if people can't agree on which formula to use, and some projects that haven't been updated in a while might not upgrade at all, which could also be a chance to clean up the market.

Also, the original switch to the new code could open up security holes, and users who have been holding their own assets will need to move their cryptocurrency to new wallets.

When it comes to Satoshi Nakamoto's early Bitcoin, CZ thinks that any movement of funds in the right addresses will get a lot of attention. If no one opens Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet for a long time, the community might want to lock it or destroy it to stop hackers.

Stop thinking Bitcoin has a ten-year preparation period

A lot of people have talked about the quantum threat to Bitcoin, but most people in the business used to think that there was at least ten years of time to get ready and that the first attacks would only affect Bitcoins that were not being used. CoinShares did a study in the past that showed that only about 10,000 Bitcoins were really at risk.

Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven, a security business that works with post-quantum cryptography, warned that Google's article has made the industry do more than just wait and see.

The earlier RSA-2048 method was used to make most of the past estimates. It said that Bitcoin would need tens of millions of physical qubits to be threatened. Google has come up with a new design for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) that is specifically for Bitcoin. This cuts the number of physical qubits needed to fewer than 500,000.

Google is not the only company to make a big step forward in technology. Oratomic researchers say that Shor's algorithm can be run on a large enough scale to be cryptographically important with just 10,000 to 22,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits and high-speed quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes.

In just a few years, what used to need millions of qubits has been cut down by orders of magnitude. This has been done on two different technology tracks at the same time.

Decentralized vs. Centralized: Why BTC Quantum Upgrades Are Harder

A lot of people say, "If Bitcoin is in danger, banks will be in even worse shape" when they talk about the quantum threat. Pruden stresses, though, that upgrading a decentralized network (DNF) is not the same as upgrading a business server. The network as a whole needs to use new coding at its most basic level to protect assets worth trillions of dollars.

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) needs digital signatures that are bigger, which means that speed, storage, and computing power are all needed more. A hard fork is needed to make this upgrade happen, and getting the group to agree on it will be hard.

Even if everyone agrees, it would take several months to move all of the network's assets to post-quantum addresses because Bitcoin's transaction processing speed is so slow right now. Taking action just after a quantum computer that poses a cryptographic threat is publicly proven may cause prices to fluctuate wildly and a loss of trust.

BTQ Technologies, a blockchain business, is currently using Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP 360) on Bitcoin's quantum testnet. It has enticed more than 50 miners to take part in the test by adding an output type that rewards Merklegen. This makes quantum attacks less likely.

Ethan Heilman, the security researcher who came up with the BIP-360 solution, also said that it might take up to seven years for Bitcoin to fully adopt quantum-resistant technology. This is far later than Google's own timetable of 2029 for the switch to post-quantum cryptography (PQC).

Expert Pragmatism Meets Google’s Responsible Quantum Framework

Pruden said that the point of his case wasn't to cause panic, but to get institutions and stablecoin issuers that hold a lot of Bitcoin to really think about the risks that come with it. The quantum danger is no longer just an idea in the classroom; it is now a real problem in engineering. Before the first quantum hack happens, the world needs to plan for migration and start upgrades.

Google also said that while it was sharing its findings, it worked with the US government to come up with a way to describe vulnerabilities using zero-knowledge proofs. This system lets other people check claims while stopping bad actors from getting attack plans.

Google asked other teams to follow the same rules and is excited to work with organizations like cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the Stanford Blockchain Research Center on a 2029 schedule to encourage responsible solutions.