Nvidia Snaps 11-Day Rally Near $200 as $207 All-Time High Looms

This was the end of Nvidia (NVDA)'s 11-session rise, which was its longest winning streak since 1999. The stock fell 0.3% to about $198.35 on Thursday. 

There wasn't much of a drop, but the run led to a gain of almost 10%, breaking through support levels that had been stopping price moves for months. Even though key partner TSMC sent positive signals by raising revenue guidance and playing down worries about supply from the Middle East, investors still decided to take profits.

The stock price has reached a plateau just below the important $200 psychological mark. The price of NVDA has been above its 20-day moving average, which is around $185. The 50-day MA, which is close to $178, gives the price more support. With the 200-day MA at $150 still going up, the longer-term bullish signal is strong. All eyes are on $207 right now, though. A strong close above that level would mean a new all-time high and a bigger rise.

What Drove the 11-Day Run: AI Spending and Hyperscaler Demand

The rally fits with bigger market stories that stress how important it is to keep putting money into AI systems. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are all adding more features to their data centers, which means that Nvidia's fast GPUs are becoming more important. Earnings expectations have been steadily raised due to this strong demand, which has also helped the stock's high value—it's now worth about 45 times forward earnings.

An expert named John Talbott believes that Nvidia could rise by as much as 400% since it makes the best GPUs for AI. The CUDA software environment and the fact that it is the only way to train big language models make the competitive moat stronger. This makes it pricey to switch. It's still hard to get high-tech chips, which helps Nvidia keep its prices low and its profit margins high.

The term "cyclical semiconductors" is no longer used by Nvidia. It's turning into an important AI tool. Few hyperscalers could limit spending if they have a lot of customers, and AMD and in-house chip solutions could slowly make them less dominant in the market. Even though there are short-term drops, institutional demand is still high.

The Technical Picture: $195 Cleared, $207 in Sight

The price had been stuck for months at $195, but now it has been broken. If that level is broken, buyers are ready to buy at higher prices than before. In the past, attempts to break out have found support in the $200–205 area. A lot of people may buy the stock if it goes above $205 on a large scale. This could cause the price to rise again to its previous high point near $212.

There is divergence that points up in momentum measures like the RSI, but they are not yet very strong. The protest can still go on. There are changes in volume that show things are being gathered instead of spread out. This means that more groups are likely taking part. There are signs that prices will go up even more, but since they are so close to resistance, there may be a short break before the next wave.

Initial support sits at $190, followed by a more significant demand zone around $180. The 50-day MA at $178 is the line that must hold to keep the bullish structure intact.

The Sector Rotation Context: Slower But Steadier

About 5% of the time this year, Nvidia has won. That's good, but not as fast as it would have liked. People aren't gathering around a single AI star; instead, they're following a number of different names in semiconductors. It is still the biggest in the world, with a market value of $4.8 trillion. The question is whether the next leg up will be based on facts, feelings, or a shift in the chips' order.

The earnings report is set for May 20. In mega-cap tech, results are important for proving that you are in charge in a world that is changing quickly. The fact that TSMC had a strong first quarter and raised its estimate was a good sign. But Nvidia needs to deliver its own beat to keep the breakout story going.

The break through $207 is a sure thing. A strong close above that all-time high would make it possible for a move in the next few weeks toward $210–$215. If it isn't broken, the price could stay in a band between $185 and $200, which would eat up recent gains without ending the bullish trend but would delay the next leg.

At least $195 must be able to hold. If prices fall back below that level, which was once resistance, the breakout signal would be thrown out, and it would look like the 11-day rise was more of a relief bounce than a return to the trend.

Earnings on May 20 are what set off the cycle. Keep an eye on Nvidia to see if it can back up its 45x forward multiple with guidance that supports the hyperscaler spending story. The fact that TSMC said "sold-out environment" says that demand is still strong. Now it's execution risk that changes things..

The end of the 11-day streak is not the sign. The test for $207 is. The biggest run of wins since 1999 made the way clear. It will depend on the next volume push if Nvidia walks through it.